Gradual adoption rate over a period

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stra8egic - 12 Mar 2008 05:03 GMT

Hi Guys,

I have a new product for which I'm trying to display both expected
take up and revenue/profit calculations.

The problem I have is that I'm not sure how to weigh out the adoption
rate.

At this point, I want to sell 77 Units per month, over 12 months,
which works out say 6.42 p.month. But we don't expect to reach that
6.42 straight up in the first month and maintain that over the
year.Doing it this way also has an unrealistic effect on revenue, in
that we are 'taking more money' earlier and growing on the subscriber
base earlier than what's realistic.

So, how do I stretch out adoption more gradually? Over the first and
then 2nd and 3rd years.

Please I need some help or to be pointed in the right direction.

Month (No)    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9    10    11    12
Total    6    13    19    26    32    39    45    51    58    64    71    77
New     6    6    6    6    6    6    6    6    6    6    6    6

The 'New' needs to look more like... obviously as the result of a
formula I can put in place for variables to feed into.

1    2    2    2    3    6    6    8    10    11    12    13

Reply to this Message

ilia - 12 Mar 2008 05:52 GMT

Your sample data makes no sense. Is the "New" contributing to the
"Total", or are those independent values? If they are not related
(which is what your sample appears like), how do you arrive at the
"Total"? If they are related, then how did you come up with the
"needs to look more like" list? Finally, how do you calculate revenue
if you don't have the cost per product and selling price in your data?

Clarify your inquiry, if you want a meaningful answer.

> Hi Guys,
>
[quoted text clipped - 24 lines]
>
> 1 2 2 2 3 6 6 8 10 11 12 13

Reply to this Message

aglet - 12 Mar 2008 07:19 GMT

I think I know what you're looking for, but the results may not be
realistic.
If I'm interpreting it right, you are looking for a formula that will give
you a growth rate.

For instance,
start with a 2 x 2 table:

A1 1
A2 12
B1 1
B2 77

to represent your starting and ending periods (column A) and your first and
last month's sales [YTD] (column B).

Then make your table to show your individual sales using the growth rate.

For instance, a 12x2 column in cells A4 through B15, with column A
representing the months 1-12 and column B the total YTD units sold.

The formula in cell B4 would be =GROWTH($B$1:$B$2,$A$1:$A$2,A4).
Copy the formula to cells B5-B15.

This will give you a steady growth rate. To get the individual months
units, subtract the YTD from the previous month's ... and you'd probably
want to add a rounding function. In reality, however, you may find that
this forecasts too few units in early months and too many in latter, even
though it does represent a steady growth rate.
---------------------------

Your sample data makes no sense. Is the "New" contributing to the
"Total", or are those independent values? If they are not related
(which is what your sample appears like), how do you arrive at the
"Total"? If they are related, then how did you come up with the
"needs to look more like" list? Finally, how do you calculate revenue
if you don't have the cost per product and selling price in your data?

Clarify your inquiry, if you want a meaningful answer.

On Mar 12, 12:03 am, stra8egic <mikecorry...@googlemail.com> wrote:

> Hi Guys,
>
[quoted text clipped - 24 lines]
>
> 1 2 2 2 3 6 6 8 10 11 12 13

Reply to this Message