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MS Office Forum / Excel / New Users / May 2008Excel newbie needs help from math wiz (poker related)
I want to create a Excel workbook that will help in specific poker situations. Short version: I want to be able to calculate how often my opponent will need to fold for an all-in raise to show a positive expectation. Explanation: In poker you can win a hand by having the best hand at the end OR getting your opponent to fold. A common situation comes up where you have a "drawing hand" and face a bet by your opponent. In this situation you know you are currently behind in the hand, but have a chance to win if you catch some of your "outs" (cards that will give you the winning hand). Example: You have one of these drawing hands and it will become the winning hand about 1/3 of the time if you stay in until the end. There is $150 in the pot and your opponent bets another $100. If you were to re-raise all in it would be for a total of $300 ($200 in addition to his $100). x% of the time my opponent will fold in this spot I want to be able to solve for x (the amount my opponent will need to fold) to show me the break even point of this re-raise. When I re-raise all in he is only left with two options so we need to account for both. He can call or he can fold: 100% of the time he folds I will win $250 2/3 of the time he calls I miss my draw and lose $300 (the amount I re-raised all in with) 1/3 of the time I will hit my draw and win $450 ($150 in the original pot+his $100 bet+his $200 call of my all in re-raise) So, how can I create an excel workbook/calculation that will calculate the % my opponent will need to fold for my all in re-raise to break even? Thanks in advance for any help with this. > I want to create a Excel workbook that will help in specific poker > situations. [quoted text clipped - 34 lines] > > Thanks in advance for any help with this. It seems you have over simplified to the point of useless. example. You win 1/3 of the time = $450 lose 2/3 of the time = $600 (2 times the 300 that you lose) Your strategy of an average of 3 hands = $150 in the hole. > It seems you have over simplified to the point of useless. example. You > win 1/3 of the time = $450 > lose 2/3 of the time = $600 (2 times the 300 that you lose) > > Your strategy of an average of 3 hands = $150 in the hole. BUT the times he will fold could more then make up the difference. Each and every single time he folds I will win $250. So I'm looking to figure out how often he will need to fold before this re-raise all in will make sense (Break even). So in the original example (below) if I think my opponent will fold half the time, I will come out ahead, but if I only think my opponent will fold about 1 out of 10 times, I will show a loss by making this raise. Those are extremes so I'd like to be able to be more accurate and know precisely how often he will need to fold. Thanks. >> I want to create a Excel workbook that will help in specific poker >> situations. [quoted text clipped - 34 lines] >> >> Thanks in advance for any help with this. Then you will need to determine the numbers a lot closer than you have. At the moment it is nothing but conjecture, you have simplified it to the point that it is useless. If you don't force him to fold you will lose $50 on average given the numbers you posed. If he folds you win $250, to break even you must force him to fold 1/6th of the time. He folds you win $250, he doesn't fold 5 times you lose $250. 1 vs 5 equals 1 of 6 or approximately 17% >>It seems you have over simplified to the point of useless. example. You >>win 1/3 of the time = $450 [quoted text clipped - 53 lines] >>> >>>Thanks in advance for any help with this. Thank you Bob, Yes 1/6th of the time is the correct % he will need to fold for this play (in this example) to break even. Therefore if I feel he will fold more then 1/6th of the time a raise will be "correct" over the long run. If not, a raise would show a loss over the long run. I'm just trying to figure out a calculation I can create in Excel so I can quickly find this "break even" fold % I need to profitably raise all in. > Then you will need to determine the numbers a lot closer than you have. At > the moment it is nothing but conjecture, you have simplified it to the [quoted text clipped - 64 lines] >>>> >>>>Thanks in advance for any help with this. The "problem" is the money wagered. Percentage is equal to 100/)(How much you win if he folds)/(average loss if he doesn't)+1). > Thank you Bob, > [quoted text clipped - 74 lines] >>>>> >>>>>Thanks in advance for any help with this. Sorry for the additional request for help, but...how to I enter this info into an Excel workbook? I'm looking for a workbook where I can enter in the given info (current pot size, current bet, chance of winning with my hand, remaining stack size that can be won or lost). Then find the correct fold % I will need from my opponent. > The "problem" is the money wagered. Percentage is equal to 100/)(How much > you win if he folds)/(average loss if he doesn't)+1). [quoted text clipped - 78 lines] >>>>>> >>>>>>Thanks in advance for any help with this. You will need to build it yourself. We just called it buying the pot. > Sorry for the additional request for help, but...how to I enter this info > into an Excel workbook? [quoted text clipped - 86 lines] >>>>>>> >>>>>>>Thanks in advance for any help with this. Well, that was my original question. How to build this in Excel? If I knew how to do it, I wouldn't of needed to come here and ask for help :) > You will need to build it yourself. We just called it buying the pot. > [quoted text clipped - 89 lines] >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>Thanks in advance for any help with this. >I want to create a Excel workbook that will help in specific poker > situations. [quoted text clipped - 34 lines] > > Thanks in advance for any help with this. Your example is very clear. I made the following simple spreadsheet: DATA Prob opponent folds = 33% Prob I make my draw= 33% Amount in pot 250 Amount of my re-raise 300 CALCULATIONS My gain from fold =+B2*B4 My gain from draw-win =(1-B2)*B3*B4 My loss from draw-lose =-(1-B2)*(1-B3)*B5 My overall probable gain =SUM(B8:B10) The stuff on the left headed DATA goes in column A, and the stuff on the right goes in column B. You can just fiddle about with the probability that opponent folds percentage to make your overall probable gain zero (break-even), or use the in-built solver function. You really need to read up some simple probability theory to understand this, but there are only two very simple concepts being used: First, you multiply the probability of an event by its pay-off to get your 'mathematical expectation'. Second, you multiply probabilities. HTH GB, Thanks for the help, but I'm really trying to get the Excel workbook to work the other way and calculate the break even fold% I'll need to show a 0 expected value (my break even point). I also tried plugging in the calculation you provided, but couldn't get it to work. I pasted the data in the A column and the formulas in B, but couldn't get it to work out correctly. Thanks again for the help. >I want to create a Excel workbook that will help in specific poker > situations. [quoted text clipped - 38 lines] > > Thanks in advance for any help with this. Your example is very clear. I made the following simple spreadsheet: DATA Prob opponent folds =33% Prob I make my draw=33% Amount in pot250 Amount of my re-raise300 CALCULATIONS My gain from fold=+B2*B4 My gain from draw-win=(1-B2)*B3*B4 My loss from draw-lose=-(1-B2)*(1-B3)*B5 My overall probable gain=SUM(B8:B10) The stuff on the left headed DATA goes in column A, and the stuff on the right goes in column B. You can just fiddle about with the probability that opponent folds percentage to make your overall probable gain zero (break-even), or use the in-built solver function. You really need to read up some simple probability theory to understand this, but there are only two very simple concepts being used: First, you multiply the probability of an event by its pay-off to get your 'mathematical expectation'. Second, you multiply probabilities. HTH > GB, > > Thanks for the help, but I'm really trying to get the Excel workbook to > work the other way and calculate the break even fold% I'll need to show a > 0 expected value (my break even point). Yes, that's what the solver function does. > I also tried plugging in the calculation you provided, but couldn't get it > to work. I pasted the data in the A column and the formulas in B, but > couldn't get it to work out correctly. Shame. I have the spreadsheet here, but no means of getting it to you. Can't you just type the formulae in? That's what I did. > Thanks again for the help. > [quoted text clipped - 69 lines] > > HTH I'm not very good with Excel (obviously). What is the "solver function" and how can I use it to solve for the needed fold %? And yes, I could just plug the formula in, but I'm still confused as to what formula to put in my workbook. I know to add the necessary data (the data that will change depending on the situation such as pot size, raise amount, % I will make my draw, etc...) in one area and then plug the formula using those cells in another, but I just don't know what that formula should be in order to find the needed fold % for a break even expectation. I know this seems very basic to most of you guys, but I'm just not getting it for some reason...SORRY. >> GB, >> [quoted text clipped - 85 lines] >> >> HTH > I'm not very good with Excel (obviously). What is the "solver function" > and how can I use it to solve for the needed fold %? [quoted text clipped - 10 lines] > I know this seems very basic to most of you guys, but I'm just not getting > it for some reason...SORRY. Well I wish you luck. The formulae are all there in the spreadsheet I gave you. The way excel works, it is better to break the formulae down into smaller bits than to have one large formula. I would strongly recommend not playing poker for money until you have improved your maths skills, but if you insist on doing so can I play against you please? ^.^ >>> GB, >>> [quoted text clipped - 86 lines] >>> >>> HTH lol, my poker skills are just a tad bit better then my Excel skills so I am more then up for the challenge :) Which sites do you play on? PS: I think I got your formula to work the way you set it up, but it doesn't come out with the right figures. It shows if my opponent folds 33% of the time it will be about break even, but the correct answer for the break even point will be about 1/6th. PSS: How can I use "solver function" to find the needed fold% once I get the formula to work correctly the way you have it set up? >> I'm not very good with Excel (obviously). What is the "solver function" >> and how can I use it to solve for the needed fold %? [quoted text clipped - 111 lines] >>>> >>>> HTH > PS: I think I got your formula to work the way you set it up, but it > doesn't come out with the right figures. It shows if my opponent folds 33% > of the time it will be about break even, but the correct answer for the > break even point will be about 1/6th. Sorry. I did not read your example carefully enough. I took the amount you gained if you win the draw as the amount in the pot. I forgot that your opponent has to see you. (I think you would trounce me at poker.) You need an extra item of data, which is the amount you win if your opponent does not fold but you win the draw. Say you put that amount into cell B6, ie the $450 figure. Then change the formula for gain from draw-win to =(1-B2)*B3*B6 All this is doing is calculating: (1-B2) , which is the chance your opponent does not fold. B2 contains the chance that your opponent folds. Say this is 17%, then the chance he does not fold is 100% -17% = 83%. 100% is the same as 1. This is multiplied by B3 , which is the chance that you win the draw, ie 33% This is multiplied by B6, which is the amount you gain if you win If you do that, the fold %age works out to be just over17%, as you say. > PSS: How can I use "solver function" to find the needed fold% once I get > the formula to work correctly the way you have it set up? The way to find the 17% figure is just to change the fold% figure in B2 until the overall gain (B12) is zero. You can do that easily enough by trial and error. The solver tool does it for you. The tool may be different in different versions of Excel. This is for Excel 2003: On the Tools menu, click Goal Seek ... just fill in the 3 boxes and press ok. The top box should say B12, the middle one 0, and the bottom one B2, then click ok. There is a solver tool on the tools menu too, but goal seek is simpler to use and does the job well enough. >>> I'm not very good with Excel (obviously). What is the "solver function" >>> and how can I use it to solve for the needed fold %? [quoted text clipped - 112 lines] >>>>> >>>>> HTH Thanks a bunch GB. one last question: Can I have the "goal seeker" run to find the fold % automatically? I was able to get it to work, but only when I opened it and manually entered in the data to run it. Time will be an issue when I need to figure all this out so I'm trying to get it to where I can find the needed fold % ASAP. Thanks again. >> PS: I think I got your formula to work the way you set it up, but it >> doesn't come out with the right figures. It shows if my opponent folds [quoted text clipped - 158 lines] >>>>>> >>>>>> HTH > Thanks a bunch GB. one last question: > [quoted text clipped - 4 lines] > Time will be an issue when I need to figure all this out so I'm trying to > get it to where I can find the needed fold % ASAP. Yes, Excel has a very good macro recorder for this sort of thing. Click on Tools ... Macro .... Record New Macro. This comes up with a little dialog box which you can mostly ignore. All you need to fill in is the box which says "shortcut key ctrl+". Stick a j in there and click ok. A little box appears with a blue button on the left hand side - ignore that for now. Then just follow through the goal-seek procedure as normal. (Excel is recording what you are doing.) When you have finished the goal seek procedure, click on the little blue button in that small box to tell Excel to stop recording. That's it. You've recorded a macro that will do the goal seek procedure for you automatically. To run it, hold down the ctrl key and hit j. Don't forget to save the new version of your spreadsheet. > Thanks again. > [quoted text clipped - 161 lines] >>>>>>> >>>>>>> HTH THANKS for all your help, GB !!!!! Got it all working great now. >> Thanks a bunch GB. one last question: >> [quoted text clipped - 191 lines] >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> HTH > THANKS for all your help, GB !!!!! > > Got it all working great now. Great - pleased to hear it. Ok, think I got it to work. I changed the amount of my re-raise to $200 as it's only a $200 raise of his $100 bet (and the $100 was already added into the pot size of $250). Once I changed that the results are correct now. So I'm only left with the question of how to use the "solver function" to find the needed fold % for my play to break even (rather then having to "play" around with the fold % to find the break even point) >> GB, >> [quoted text clipped - 15 lines] > My loss from draw-lose=-(1-B2)*(1-B3)*B5 > My overall probable gain=SUM(B8:B10)
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