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MS Office Forum / Excel / General Excel Questions / December 2007

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polynomial growth trends

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andyfw - 26 Dec 2007 11:40 GMT
Does anyone know how to project polynomial growth trends in excel - ie a
growth rate that initially accelerates and then tapers off after a period -
to trend towards an absolute population size (no further growth) after a
further period.
Jerry W. Lewis - 26 Dec 2007 12:14 GMT
It is rarely accurate to extrapolate beyond the data, unless you know the
correct form of the equation.  Your verbal description does not sound like a
polynomial, which necessarily goes to +/- infinity as the independent
variable goes to +/- infinity.

Jerry

> Does anyone know how to project polynomial growth trends in excel - ie a
> growth rate that initially accelerates and then tapers off after a period -
> to trend towards an absolute population size (no further growth) after a
> further period.
Gary''s Student - 26 Dec 2007 12:29 GMT
Consider using something like:

y = a * exp( b * (1-1/x)) rather than a polynomial.  This has only two
parameters and has the desired limited growth characteristic.
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Gary''s Student - gsnu200762

> Does anyone know how to project polynomial growth trends in excel - ie a
> growth rate that initially accelerates and then tapers off after a period -
> to trend towards an absolute population size (no further growth) after a
> further period.
Herbert Seidenberg - 26 Dec 2007 17:12 GMT
Since you say that the curve initially accelerates,
I visualize the curve as an "S" curve.
Maybe like this:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Generalised_logistic_curve
Here is the formula in Excel:
y=k_a+k_c/((1+k_t*EXP(-k_b*(x-2*k_m)))^(1/k_t))
where
y=  population
x=  time
k_a    lower asymptote
k_c    upper asymptote minus k_a
k_m    time of maximum growth
k_b    growth rate
k_t     asymmetry of max growth time

A simplified formula might look like this:
y=a/(b+EXP(-c*x))
 
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